Paul, Hunter Force Leading GOP Candidates to Pay Attention
While Congressmen Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter rank below the other Republican presidential candidates in national polls, they nonetheless hit on key issues for particular blocs and occasionally force the top tier to take notice.
The super-early, front-loaded primary calendar, combined with a mildly enthusiastic Republican base, has enabled these two boutique candidates to energize the field, said Mark Wrighton, politics professor at Millikin University in Illinois.
“We’re really sort of in uncharted territory here and we’re seeing some interesting things occur,” Wrighton said.
One of the unexpected, big moves in the race so far has been the catapult of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, from what was generally considered a darkhorse, second-tier position to frontrunner status in Iowa; he has become the most talked about Republican candidate in the field.
Paul has surprised everyone by attracting what many are saying is the largest grassroots movement since independent Ross Perot in 1992. The limited government, anti-war libertarian raised more than $19 million in the fourth quarter of 2007 and he has a legion of avid volunteers knocking door to door and blogging all over the country on his behalf.
While his chances for winning the nomination appear slim, Paul earned 9 percent of the vote in a Des Moines Register survey of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers released Tuesday. An average of national polling puts him at 4.3 percent.
Meanwhile, Hunter may not have the the broad appeal of the current GOP frontrunners, but is certainly generating — and riding — the wave of Republican energy on issues like illegal immigration and border security.
Hunter, a California congressman, has forged his campaign on Republican anger at what he perceives is federal immobility on curbing illegal immigration, incentives that attract undocumented workers and their families here and so-called “sanctuary cities” that do not penalize or pursue illegal immigrants within their jurisdictions.
Hunter, who was chairman of the Armed Services Committee before Democrats took over the majority in the House of Representatives in 2007, is known primarily for successfully pushing through legislation for erecting a security fence along the U.S.-Mexican border. He’s been tough on the outsourcing of American business to foreigners and has been steadfast in this support of the war policy in Iraq.
But his star has been dimmed by the brighter, though in some ways, less purely conservative lights of the so-called “top tier.”
“I’ve known Duncan Hunter since 1980,” said John Gizzi, political editor of Human Events. “He’s one of the most decent people I know. He places ethics above everything else. He’s honorable to a fault.”
But with Hunter polling around 1 percent, Gizzi said the candidate might be looking toward other things.
“If there is a Republican president, (Hunter) would make an outstanding secretary of defense.”
Paul has not been so overshadowed. The 10-term congressman from Texas who was the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate in 1988, has never enjoyed so much national notoriety and support as he does now, mostly because he is the only Republican candidate who has articulated opposition to the war, independence from the GOP machine and a strict constructionist view of the Constitution.
“He’s surprising a lot of people with the buzz he’s getting,” said Sean Evans, a professor of politics at Union University in Tennessee. “There’s a strong libertarian streak in the Republican Party and he’s speaking to that. He’s speaking to a certain demographic that no one has been able to.”
During the GOP debates Paul, 72, offered push-back against the other candidates, particularly on Iraq. Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner in national polls, was able to make headlines off Paul when he scolded him for suggesting that it was U.S. policy that led to the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. But Paul didn’t back down and therein lies his appeal, said conservative political consultant Chuck Muth, also head of Citizen Outreach.
“He’s never worried about the Republican establishment, that’s for sure,” he said. “He means what he says. I think his personality has attracted so many people who may hadn’t heard of Ron Paul before this presidential campaign.”
Zogby currently shows Ron Paul tied with Giuliani and Thompson at 8%, and 3 points behind McCain in Iowa, among likely Republican caucus voters. Another Zogby poll in November showed that Independents and Democrats represent 60% of Paul’s support nationwide. From the last paragraph of Zogby’s press release:
“Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson.”
If this poll is at all reflective of Paul’s true support, and holds true in Iowa, then his real polling number in Iowa is closer to 20%, which would give him at least a 3rd place finish. After that, all the rules may change.
We have a political chat room in Pal talk and were fortunate to have Duncan Hunter come and give an online interview. We are a conservative politics room, with todays’ comments and political scene I felt that I should say this up front!
Duncan Hunter was very impressive he was knowledgeable, informative and answered every question put to him, we support all conservative candidates, but he was by far the most impressive candidate in this silly circus season of politics. His record is outstanding his service unquestionable! We know that he fights overwhelming odds, but we stand behind him!
Apparently, the 2 headed monster Fox created (Rudy\Fred) is all hype. Rudy continues to talk about 9/11, attacking Iran, and now he released his “4 point war strategy” he will call for a new military surge in Afghanistan, a change in the way America’s spies are promoted so that officers are rewarded for finding actionable intelligence and not just the number of agents they recruit, and a new war on Al Qaeda’s intricate network of Web sites, sites used both to communicate with its agents in the field and to recruit new jihadis.” Rudy offers nothing to Americans but War, debt and continued division. I have boycotted Fox News at home, and have called several of their sponsors to stress my disapproval. No more Outback Steakhouse, CDW, and my next car will not be replaced with another Mercury. I cant decide which is worse for America, Rudy Giuliani or Fox News.
Hunter is the closest thing to a conservative in the race. It’s a shame that the media tries to ignore him so much of the time, but he will probably do better in the western states, later in the primaries, because he speaks more to the issues they see as important. For perspective, look at the laws passed in Arizona regarding illegal aliens.
Ron Paul is running as a republican because nobody takes the national platform of the libertarian party seriously. His support is from people who are disillusioned with both parties, who ALSO are against the war. That means mostly people who would normally vote democrat anyway. He can only help the republican party by staying in the race or running as a third party candidate. I would not be suprised to see him run as a Libertarian again, in spite of his denials, or to find that it was his plan all along. Obviously, the Libertarian party debate would have been “him against an empty studio,” so he had to do something.
Fox has made a serious blunder by not inviting Ron Paul to the forum on Jan. 6. Fox’s scandalous partisanism has been apparent to Ron Paul supporters for many months. Now it is apparent to everyone. Fox would have done better to continue to invite him to stand on the side of the stage, give him 1/3 the time of the other candidates, and ask him disrespectful, loaded questions. Fox has underestimated the blowback. No one can give credence to claims that the decision was based on objective criteria. Paul out and Thompson in? It does not pass the sniff test.
Shame!
Dear Mr. Murdoch,
I am perplexed at why someone in your employ would think it was a good idea to exclude Ron Paul. Are they trying to propel him to the top? Are they a secret admirer?
I realize Ron Paul doesn’t look very presidential, since he is rather small in stature and that he is not a polished public speaker. But he has surpassed both Giuliani and Thompson in some recent polls in Iowa.
I realize you have contributed much to our public discourse by providing a platform for conservative as well as liberal points of view on FOX. Won’t this really hurt the FOX News reputation of being fair and balanced, if the decision stands?
Huck is in the lead in the polls only because his name is repeated over and over and over and over by the media each day. The general public who responds to the telephone polls (and unfortunately goes and pulls the lever) does not take the time to find out where the candidates actually stand or whether the things they are saying are true. They vote for who you tell them is most popular. That’s why it is so important that the media give fair time to all candidates without calling them “long shots” or saying their “chances for winning the nomination appear slim”. You are smart enough to know that the general public will not vote for someone they perceive to be a “long shot”. Please stop trying to influence the voters. Report the news, leave the biased commentary out.
Let Ron Paul debate. Why are you afraid of him?
Ron Paul is not a “boutique” candidate. His message appeals to broad swaths of Americans and his support is being significantly underreported. He’s going to surprise a lot of pundits in the next week.
I see that there is more defeatism from the GOP Leadership.
I love how all these “Ronald Reagan Conservatives” will buy into the Media Hype. The same media that will only show horrible stories from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Congressman Hunter lets his actions do his talking where the other candidates on both sides of the aisle are just making empty promises.
I will once again remind the American People that Ronald Reagan was not polling well in the 1980 Primaries and he went on to Win New Hampshire and then he went on to defeat the Democrats twice for the Presidency.
So my question for all Americans - Is it the Media who decides who the President of the United States is or is it still up to “We the People”?