Candidates Now Face Their Survival States

FOXNews.com

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

The rest of January will be a fight for survival for the 2008 presidential field following John McCain and Hillary Clinton's wins in New Hampshire Tuesday night.

The White House contenders now turn their attention to key nomination battles in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida -- all of which are prelude to the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" battle for 23 primary states.

Democrats are carefully eyeing the Nevada caucuses, where Hispanic voters will have a heavier voice, and Clinton and Barack Obama are locking horns over the strong union vote that pervades Las Vegas. Obama quickly landed a post-New Hampshire blow by securing the state chapter of the Service Employees International Union endorsement on Wednesday. Clinton's union support lies in more established groups like the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Next Tuesday, the Republican race will see if Mitt Romney is able to eke out a win following two second-place wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and a largely overlooked win in the Wyoming contest last Saturday. Romney heads to Michigan Wednesday to spend all his time there leading up to next Tuesday's vote there -- except to make time for FOX News' Myrtle Beach, S.C., GOP debate on Thursday.

Off to South Carolina: Tune in Thursday at 9 p.m. ET as the South Carolina Republican Party and FOX News host the Republican candidates debate live from Myrtle Beach.

Romney's staff say he's not abandoning South Carolina -- he's pushing back scheduled events there until after Michigan -- but his aides say they're looking to boost chances in South Carolina after a win in Michigan. The state is a symbolically important to Romney, too: His father George Romney was a former governor there who later served in the Nixon administration, and the Romney name is well-established in state politics.

Neither Romney nor Rudy Giuliani plan on quitting before Feb. 5, but both hope to gain some footing before the big national primary contest. For that momentum, Giuliani has been putting his chips on Florida's contest, which comes on Jan. 29, one week before Super Tuesday.

But before they get there, the two big GOP winners so far -- McCain and Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee -- will be facing off Jan. 19 in the South Carolina for its "First in the South" primary (held the same day as the Nevada caucuses). Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and ordained Baptist minister will see how his evangelical Christian base will compete against McCain's maverick, veteran-conservative-but-not-Washington-insider campaign.

South Carolina could also prove decisive for two other southern candidates, Democrat John Edwards and Republican Fred Thompson.

Edwards -- who was born in South Carolina and later became a North Carolina senator -- has a southern lilt but a populist message. His lagging numbers from the contests so far indicate that he needs a win, even though he now indicating a more national strategy -- Tuesday night he said despite losses so far, there are 48 states to go. Democrats go head-to-head in South Carolina a week after Republicans do on Jan. 26.

And Thompson, whose laid-back style he first used to gain a Senate seat in Tennessee, finds a crucial contest in South Carolina. Thompson acknowledged as much Tuesday when, instead of spending time stumping in New Hampshire, he was working the trail in The Palmetto State.

Change v. Experience

The question still being asked Wednesday morning is whether change or experience is the bigger attraction for American voters, after two long-standing Washington establishments won their respective party primaries in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton and John McCain both resurrected their campaigns to come away with big wins in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary on Tuesday night.

Tuesday night, Clinton edged out rival Barack Obama by a few points even though the campaign itself had been girding for a second consecutive defeat earlier in the day. Clinton placed third in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, the New York senator had 39 percent while Obama had 36 in New Hampshire. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 17 percent,  New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 5 percent and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich had 1 percent.

Wednesday morning Clinton and Obama sharpened their barbs against each other.

"What the American people are looking for is somebody who's going to be able to rise above some of the petty politics we've seen in the past and really focus on solving problems," Obama told FOX News, when asked about Clinton campaign attacks on his comparisons between himself and Martin Luther King and John F. Kennedy.

Clinton, speaking with FOX shortly after Obama, built on new momentum found from an emotional moment over the weekend, and turned it into a slight on Obama she's been turning to: words are not actions.

Helping people, she said, "it's what I believe in because I think that's what you're supposed to do in public office. It's not about the speeches yo make, it's the results you deliver." Regarding the attacks on Obama's record, she added: "I think it's important for people who are looking at each of us to, you know, understand what we've done, what weve said, and who we are."

On the Republican side, McCain beat out rival Mitt Romney.  FOX News declared the Arizona senator the winner with 13 percent of precincts reporting just 15 minutes after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, returns showed McCain with 37 percent of the vote and Romney with 31 percent.

But the Democratic race was too close to call for hours, as Clinton held a narrow lead over Obama despite exit polls and pundits' predictions that called this Obama's race.

"I come tonight with a very, very full heart," an elated but measured Clinton told supporters after her victory was declared. "I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice ... Now together let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."

Sounding almost like an underdog returning to fight, the one-time unquestioned national frontrunner cast her campaign as inflated with new energy and vitality.

"We're going to rally on and make our case. We are in for the long run," she said to cheers. 

At his post-election  rally, Obama congratulated Clinton on her victory and pledged the same: "I am still fired up and ready to go."

Conceding his defeat, Obama said, "Something is happening in America" that is causing people who haven't voted before to come out and support him.

"There's something happening when people vote, not just for the party that they belong to, but the hopes that they hold in common. And whether we are rich or poor, black or white, Latino or Asian, whether we are from Iowa or New Hampshire ... we are ready to fundamentally take this nation in a new direction," he said as the crowd chanted "We want change, we want change."

Both Obama and Edwards called Clinton to congratulate her.

As McCain gave his victory speech, an enthusiastic crowd chanted "Mac is back! Mac is back!"

"Tonight we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like," said McCain, who as recently as a month ago seemed to be out of the race, based on state and national polls.

"When the pundits declared us finished, I told them I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decision for them," he said. "Sometimes I argued with you, but I always told you the truth the best I could see the truth."

Also on the GOP side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 11 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had 9 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul had 8 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had 1 percent.

Both Romney and McCain had predicted wins going into the primary, but following his second place finish in Iowa Thursday, Romney just wasn't able to gather enough steam to topple McCain's sudden surge in popularity in New Hampshire, where he won in 2000.

"Another silver. I’d rather have a gold, but I got another silver," Romney said Tuesday night. "There have been three races so far. I’ve gotten two silvers and one gold," he said to cheers and applause. "Thank you, Wyoming."

After performing well in debates over the weekend, Romney campaign sources said they needed three more days here to get across the message that he would be an effective change agent for Washington. That wasn't possible as the primary season had been compressed and momentum was tough to pick up with only days between each of the first three races in Iowa, Wyoming and New Hampshire.

Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani called McCain right after the race was called to congratulate the Arizona senator on his Granite State victory.

During his last stop of the day in Derry with his wife Ann at a middle school, Romney predicted the possibility of three different winners in the first three states to select delegates for the presidential conventions next summer.

With McCain's victory, no clear frontrunner has established himself in the GOP race. Huckabee won Iowa last Thursday, and Romney won Wyoming on Saturday. An AP count of delegates gives Huckabee 31, Romney 29 and McCain 7. Thompson has three and Duncan Hunter has one.

Michigan holds its primary Jan. 15 ahead of GOP votes in South Carolina and Nevada on Jan. 19. The Arizona senator said confidently during the post-primary rally that, "We celebrate one victory tonight and leave for Michigan tomorrow to win another." 

McCain in his speech also talked about the need to put aside partisan differences and unite to win the War on Terror. An unflinching supporter of the Iraq war, he benefited when U.S. casualties declined in the wake of a controversial buildup in U.S. troops that he supported.

"We are the makers of history. Not its victims," McCain said Tuesday. "In this great historic task, we will never surrender. They will."

McCain had predicted a win 24 hours earlier, though he was cautious on primary day.

Following his win in the tiny, early-voting town of Dixville Notch, N.H., just after midnight on Tuesday McCain offered his usual dry humor to make a prediction.

"We're optimistic about the outcome today, and after a landslide victory in Dixville Notch last night, 4-2, there's no way that we can stop this momentum," he said.

Dixville Notch had just 17 voters, and McCain won with four of them. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won with 7 votes.

Voting Tuesday was predicted to achieve record turnout as warm weather and high interest swirled together to create energized polling sites.

High turnout benefited Obama in Iowa, as he courted first-time voters and undecideds -- but across-the-board turnout ended up tilting the New Hampshire election in Clinton's favor.

Both Obama's and Clinton's campaign were predicting wins going into Tuesday, but those predictions tapered off from the Clinton camp as voting began and early polls showed her continuing to trail Obama following her Iowa third-place finish.

Senior Clinton advisers even told FOX News that a shake-up could be on the horizon. Just before polls closed, it was disclosed that Clinton's campaign would bring in her former chief of staff Maggie Williams and well-known Democratic ad man Roy Spence as unpaid campaign hands. Other top Democrats from the Clinton White House years may also join.

Confident of victory, Obama stuck to his pledge to deliver "change we can believe in," while the former first lady was forced to retool her appeal to voters on the run. She lessened her emphasis on experience, and sought instead to raise questions about Obama's ability to bring about the change he promised.

The grind took a toll on both of them.

Obama suffered from a sore throat, while Clinton's voice quavered at one point when asked how she coped with the rigors of the campaign. That unexpected moment of emotion became the talk of the final 24 hours of the campaign.

Among the other candidates, Edwards congratulated both Clinton and Obama at a post-vote rally, and showed no sign that his third place finish would deter him.  

"I want to be clear to the 99 percent of Americans who have not yet had a chance to have their voices heard that I am in this race until the convention," Edwards said of the 48 states that still have to hold primaries and caucuses, as he was drowned out by cheers from the crowd. "And I am in this race until we have actually restored the American dream and strengthened and restored middle-class America."

 After a resounding win in Iowa, Huckabee too was hoping for a third-place finish in New Hampshire, and expressed satisfaction with the turnout Tuesday.

"Tonight we're going to come out here with the continued momentum," he said. "Over the last few days, we've seen that momentum build and the excitement at our rallies and the enthusiasm of our people and the size of the crowds. And we just sensed that we were going to do better than a lot of people thought that this old unknown Southern boy could possibly do up here in New England."

Giuliani also made a swing through Manchester, but has already said he's banking on the bevy of states voting Feb. 5 to carry his candidacy.

"We have got a lot of work to do, we have a lot of work that lies ahead," Giuliani told supporters. "This is just the beginning ... Think of it as the kick-off of a long and very tough game but one that we will come out by the time it is over with. By February 5th we will be the nominee of party.

"Maybe, just maybe, we actually will be able to say that the groundwork that we laid here is the groundwork that will bring us not just to the nomination but to the presidency," Giuliani continued.

Capturing 8 percent of the vote, Paul, too, said he was not giving up the fight. Initially sounding like he was giving a policy speech Tuesday, Paul threw in his satisfaction at the support he's received.

"You know, I knew we were making progress when I realized how many people found us on the Internet.  That's been very exciting," he said. "The energy from the campaign has come from the young people, and those who have been frustrated, and who are young at heart, who still believe in liberty and believe in freedom."

Thompson had already conceded a New Hampshire loss publicly and spent the day Tuesday in South Carolina.

With the temperature in Manchester at 60 degrees, the rare thaw had voters teeming at the polls. New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner projected turnout at about a half-million, with 260,000 for Democrats and 240,000 for Republicans.

With ballots from 12 percent of voting precincts still to be counted, about 453,000 residents had cast votes, already breaking the previous primary turnout record of 396,385 ballots cast in 2000.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

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