Gallup Poll: Many Democrats Ready to Vote McCain if Their First Choice Doesn’t Make It to November
Many Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama supporters are ready to spurn the Democratic party and vote for John McCain in November if their candidate doesn’t win the presidential nomination, according to a new poll out Wednesday.
And a second poll out Wednesday shows most voters — including 85 percent of Democrats — believe there’s a chance that the battle between Clinton and Obama will not be resolved before the August convention.
Among people who identified themselves as Hillary Clinton supporters, 28 percent said they would vote for McCain if Obama is his opponent, the March 7-22 Gallup Poll Daily election tracking survey found.
The same poll found that 19 percent of Obama supporters would switch sides and cast ballots for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic candidate.
The survey interviewed 6,657 Democratic voters nationwide and had a margin of error of 2 percent.
Click here to read the Gallup Poll discussion of the survey.
Gallup analysts note that the results could change by November, by which time Democrats will have made great efforts to unify the party.
Gallup analysts also noted that voters tend to threaten party desertion but don’t necessarily do so. A recent Gallup survey found that 11 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for a different party or not at all if McCain doesn’t pick a running mate who is more conservative than he is.
Historically, the party-switch factor has shown to be less dramatic, Gallup analysts said. Less than 10 percent of Republicans and Democrats crossed party lines in pre-election Gallup polls from 1992 to 2004.
In the second poll, Rasmussen Reports found that 87 percent of all voters — and 85 percent of Democrats — believe it is “somewhat likely” that both Clinton and Obama will remain in the race until the convention. Fifty-two percent of Democrats said it is “very likely” the nomination won’t be decided until the convention.
The Rasmussen poll (March 24-25, 800 likely voters, +/- 4 percentage points) also found that there’s equal dislike on either side of the Democratic race for the rival candidate: 22 percent of both Clinton and Obama supporters said they believe the other candidate should drop out of the race.
I’m an independent because I do not support parties–but people. Right now, McCain is number 1 for me, because he has been saying some good things on foreign policy and on domestic matters. Obama is number 2. Hillary is not a possible recipient of my vote, mainly because of her own personal qualities, her lies, and the fact that I’m totally tired of the Clintons.
Overwhelmingly, those I talk to see the choices as “Bad, Worse or Impossible”. This election the candidate selected certainly won’t become President by a “popular” vote.
How did either party become so fractured, splintered, disenfranchised and dismembered from their original goals, objectives and ideals? Any “feel-good” candidate here will come with a heavy slug of Pepto.
I am a Clinton supporter and would not vote for Obama if he is the nominee.
3/26/08 I could NEVER vote for Obama. I will have to vote for McCain if Obama is the candidate.
Interesting enough, after a meeting at the hall, we all talked about the upcoming election and the delegates we’re saying that they realize that rasnk and file are losing interest in the dems. They think that the rank and file will gho for McCain thaen either Hillary or Obama. The partys moving too far left for the bread winners
I support Clinton. I think that the media and the leaders of the democratic party have treated Obama like the second coming of Christ. The party leaders with their totally unwarranted worship of Obama have almost turned be completely away from the party. I am tired of the likes of Gov. Bill Richardson , Kennedy. Kerry and others who say that Hillary is at fault for this fracture in the party. It is them They want to shut out Mich. Florida and the people of all the states that have not even had primaries. I am tired of the purely hateful and dispiciable Dick Morris, I am tired of Obama crying and I am tired of being threatened by his supporters,that there will be bloodshed if he doesnt win. Wow That is a very impressive campaign argument.Doesnt quite sound like The United States of America at all.
Well I will make this short and sweet. I am enjoying watching the Democrat party self-destruct and I cannot wait to watch that circus of a convention in Denver. This article cannot sit well with Democrats no matter how much they do not want to admit it. I am going to sit back, turn the TV on, get some popcorn and watch the show !!!!
I don’t think either of the democratic candidates cares if someone who doesn’t support their candidacy for President in the primary supports them in the ge or not. The fact is they will not be affected by the skyrocketing gas prices housing downturn and the war in Iraq.
You guys would only be hurting yourselves these are Ivy League educated people. If Obama or Clinton don’t make it to the white house they are still rich and powerful and you will be left to fend for yourselves with Sen. McCain.
Bear Sterns got a bail out with these reps. in the WH but the average working American to the reps. you can vote for them and they still won’t care about your concerns. Whether your motives are racially motivated or you are just following the crowd do your research Clinton and Obama’s policies are 95% similiar.
Cut off your nose to spite your face. I am voting democrat no matter what.
Obama ‘08
My wife and I are strong supports of Hillary Clinton; we truly hope she gets the nomination for President (and having a very successful former president who left office with very high approval ratings as an advisor should be a major selling point). If, however, Obama gets the nomination and does not pick Clinton as his running mate, my wife and I (lifelong Democrats) will both vote for McCain and then switch our party affiliation to Independent. Three years of experience in the Senate (in Obama’s case) in no way, shape, or form qualifies someone to hold the highest office in the land. It continues to amaze me how so many people are jumping on the Obama “superstar” bandwagon versus basing their decision on who is truly most qualified. I hope the Superdelegates come to their senses and do not turn this nomination over to an inexperienced, inspirational speaker (who voted “present” numerous times while in the Illinois Senate versus casting a vote based on conviction) who had to have known what his pastor was saying during the past two decades. If they do, these two Democrats (and many others in our extended family) will vote for John McCain, a patriot who blows Obama out of the water when it comes to experience.
I suspect that, much like me, everyone is getting pretty turned off with all of the negative accusations and questionable credits that the candidates are throwing around, especially when a lot of it is done with a distasteful arrogance and frequent neglect for factual responsibility. Maybe we can condense some of it and see what it really means.
Take the Rev. Wright issue, where we know Barack Obama has denounced the racially inspired rhetoric but he finds it hard to disown the man. Looking at Barack’s history it is hard to find any real for/against discrimination by him or at him, we know he comes from a racially mixed background, likely we ourselves all have friends we like who have strong opinions that we just don’t agree with and Barack’s words clearly offer, because of his unique lifelong experience, that he is able to understand and emphasize with all sides. It would seem, and there sure isn’t any reason to assume it would be a negative, we can believe that he may have a strong bias to insuring racial acceptance and equality.
Now with John McCain, we know that in 2001 and 2004 he considered changing parties (being upset with the way he had been treated), then reconciled in 2004 and literally stopped being a Republican with Independent leanings, then since 2004 he has strongly backed everything the Bush administration has offered and now in 2008 he clearly indicates he is firmly committed to continuing the Bush policies. There seems no reason to doubt, taking him at his word, he would continue with a strong bias towards Special Interests, the wealthy, the select few and the long term pursuit of the War in Iraq.
Hillary Clinton has consistently demonstrated a personality (like GWB) that is marked with arrogance, self-aggrandizement, self-entitlement, boldness and the readiness, without hesitation, to say/do whatever she feels will benefit her. She wants it to be perceived as strength but there is a history of argumentative divisiveness, lacking the needed touch of humility which allows for cooperation, and then even evidence of dishonesty. It seems very likely that, when needing to work with other people, she would have real difficulty in getting things done and that her interests may be entirely too self-focused.
Each has problems and biases and they offer experience (McCain), exposure (Clinton) and eloquence (Obama) without any of it really holding a lot of weight. McCain’s positions are basically the same as GWBush’s and the differences between Clinton’s and Obama’s positions are very small and hard to quantify. As I see it, McCain’s bias and Clinton’s personality are far more problematic than Obama’s bias (for racial equality) but that is just my opinion. We each have to make our own choice, hopefully objectively, and I would just caution that we need to be aware of and resist our own biases from creeping in.