Obama Campaign Looks Beyond Pa., as Clinton Tastes Victory
Barack Obama shakes hands with supporters outside Pamela's Diner in Pittsburgh Tuesday, as Pennsylvania voters head to the polls in the state's primary. (AP Photo)
Barack Obama’s campaign moved to negate the impact of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary as opponent Hillary Clinton questioned why her rival seems unable to “close the deal” given the millions of dollars he’s spent in the state.
Both candidates have campaigned hard in the six-week run-up to the Keystone State primary, lately going after each other in ads and on the stump with an aggression that hasn’t been seen since January.
Polls show Clinton poised for a likely victory, one the Obama campaign seemed ready to write it off as two more states prepare for May 6 contests.
“Tonight’s outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary,” the Obama camp said in a memo Tuesday. “Fully three quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania … We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged-except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table.”
Indiana and North Carolina hold the next nominating votes, and offer 72 and 115 pledged delegates, respectively. While Clinton holds a rally in Philadelphia Tuesday night, Obama plans to hold his in Evansville, Ind. Moving on to another state was a tactic used by Clinton when she faltered on the trail.
“It’s an uphill battle,” Obama said of his effort in Pennsylvania, campaigning at a Pittsburgh diner. He said polls before the voting showed a tighter race than a few weeks ago but “we still, I think, have to consider ourselves the underdog.”
Obama said Monday he is “not predicting a win” in Pennsylvania, and his memo Tuesday said “by rights (Clinton) should win big,” adding that Obama has nevertheless run his campaign in earnest.
“The Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning,” the campaign said in an effort to raise the expectations game.
Privately, the Clinton campaign is shooting for the big win. But Clinton said Tuesday that a win by any margin would be impressive.
“A win is a win, especially under the circumstances where my opponent has outspent me probably three-to-one, maybe four-to-one,” she said in Conshohocken, Pa.
She later added, “I think maybe the question ought to be, ‘Why can’t he close the deal with his extraordinary financial advantage?’ Why can’t he win … this one if that’s the way it turns out?”
A Clinton campaign memo also questioned why Obama was downplaying his own expectations: “Sen. Obama’s supporters — and many pundits — have argued that the delegate ‘math’ makes him the prohibitive frontrunner … So if he’s already the frontrunner, if he’s had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn’t he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not? “
Flush with cash, Obama reported spending $11.2 million on television in the state, compared with $4.8 million for Clinton. Clinton’s once double-digit lead in Pennsylvania polls narrowed to single digits in recent weeks as both candidates put more time and resources into the state.
Democratic analysts have said Clinton needs to win by at least 10 points on Tuesday to prove she deserves to remain in the race, but by much larger margins to regain frontrunner status.
It is possible for Clinton to win the popular vote, but still come away with fewer delegates, since two-thirds of the state’s pledged delegates are awarded proportionally based on the results in each of the 19 congressional districts. The rest are awarded proportionally based on the results statewide.
If Obama pulls huge numbers in Philadelphia’s District 2 and other districts that offer a high payoff of delegates, Pennsylvania Democratic Party Director Abe Amoros said it’s “possible, highly improbably” that the Illinois senator could counter a Clinton popular vote victory with a delegate victory.
Clinton has faced calls to leave the race; not only does she trail Obama in total delegates so far, but also in the number of states won and popular vote to-date of the states that have held nomination contests.
She’s relying heavily on winning over uncommitted superdelegates to make up the gap.
“She’s really engaged in a public relations contest right now for superdelegates,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “She’s not going to win the pledged delegate count by June … what she has to win is the PR war.”
Clinton is making the argument to superdelegates that she is more electable in a general election, and repeated Tuesday that “the road to the White House leads right through Pennsylvania to Pennsylvania Avenue.” She referred to the big states she’s won as must-win states for Democrats in November.
“I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that we have a Democrat sworn in on January 20, 2009. I obviously hope to be that Democrat,” Clinton said earlier Tuesday at a polling station, adding “I happen to think I’m the stronger candidate against Senator McCain.”
As of Tuesday morning, Obama claimed 1,648.5 delegates to Clinton’s 1,509.5. They’re aiming to reach 2,025 delegates to clinch the nomination.
Bracing for Record Turnout
Meanwhile, record turnout was the expectation in Pennsylvania, similar to other states that have seen voters flood the polls.
Statewide turnout would set a modern record for Democratic presidential primaries if more than 2.3 million of the 4.2 million registered party members show up at the polls.
The current record — just under 55 percent — was set in 1980, when Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy narrowly defeated then-President Carter in Pennsylvania.
Sarah Triplett arrived early to vote Tuesday at her suburban Philadelphia polling place and soon had plenty of company.
“I had to be here to vote, and I pray that (Sen. Barack) Obama does make a big change in a very positive way,” said Triplett, a “65-plus” woman from Levittown who works with the disabled.
In Allentown, where a line snaked out the door at First Presbyterian Church, 68-year-old Ellen Woolley went for Clinton. Obama, she said, is a “marvelous speaker but I really don’t hear a lot of substance.”
By plane, train, bus and car, the two candidates and their surrogates have been relentless in courting Pennsylvania voters. They spent millions of dollars on TV advertising and squared off in Philadelphia for the 21st debate of their campaign. Tarron Turlington, 28, a technology worker from Philadelphia, said early Tuesday that he had soaked it all in — and cast his vote for Obama.
“Their policies are both in line with each other,” Turlington said. “But he’s more sincere, he’s more genuine and overall the better candidate.”
Democratic enrollment began to soar earlier this year when it became apparent that neither candidate would clinch the nomination before Pennsylvania’s primary, making it a factor in a presidential nomination for the first time in more than three decades. Voters must be registered Democrats to vote in the Clinton-Obama race. The Republican primary is also being held Tuesday, but Sen. John McCain of Arizona is already the presumptive nominee.
The number of Democrats had increased by nearly 317,000 as of March 24, the deadline for switching or joining parties, over last Fall.
The candidates take credit for much of the enthusiasm, however, conservative commentators like Rush Limbaugh is claiming the increase in Democratic voter rolls, is part of his “Operation Chaos,” in which he wants Republicans to register for Democratic contests to keep the candidates pointed at each other rather than at McCain.
Election workers in the University City section of West Philadelphia — whose voters include University of Pennsylvania employees, Drexel University students and residents of the lower-income Powelton Village neighborhood — reported strong registration in the typically transient district.
“I have never seen a polling book this thick,” poll worker Sheryl Simons said. “The debates and the candidates coming to campus has really heightened interest.”
The Democratic presidential race is not the only one being decided Tuesday — there are nomination contests for state treasurer, Congress and the state Legislature — but the White House contest is unquestionably the biggest draw for voters.
On Monday, as the six-week campaign approached its climax, the candidates continued their Pennsylvania barnstorming while campaign volunteers manned phone banks, knocked on voters’ doors and waved signs along busy streets in communities across the state.
Obama’s get-out-the-vote plans included dispatching “town criers” in Obama T-shirts to make announcements in the streets and on public buses, and sending out roving “sound trucks” blaring messages over public-address systems.
“There’s still people out there making up their minds,” said Sean Smith, a campaign spokesman for Obama.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
I think people are counting out clinton too soon!!! she is only about 150 deg. away from obegem (forgive the mis spelling)
Pennsylvania has nothing to do with how much money Obama spent in advertising. This is Hillary’s number one state where you are not going to change the majority of the people’s mind the love the Clintons. He could have out spent her 10-1 and would still have the same result. We will see more in the next two weeks.
If Hillary keeps on raising the bar, Obama will not have to jump over it, he can just run under it!!!
Everyday, I wake up and ask if it is over yet. This whole process is not what the founding fathers intended. Please, let it end.
Well whatever happens, we’re still going to get whack job Bob Beckles coming onto the scene to proclaim there is no way that Republicans can win this Nov., while looking like he’s about to have a heart attack while speaking. I guess it doesn’t matter that the polls have both sides even regardless of who wins. Hey Bob, take a nitro pill and come at us with future projections, not past.
I can trust Hillary to keep her word to begin to immediatly withdrawing our sons and daughters in harms way in Middle East..Wat too much blood shed,catastrohic injurys and deaths.I want my Soldier Girl home too.15 months is a very long time..Thank You Hillary for caring for them…Go HILLARY GO HILLARY.With Bill on her side how can we loose.He was a great Prez.
I think the question ought to be how can we expect her to balance the US budget when she can’t balance her own campaign budget.
I cannot believe people want Hillary in 08. This is a woman who stood by her man when he publicly admitted to cheating on her, but while campaigning has no problems throwing him under the bus over NAFTA.
She says she wants the votes of Michigan and Florida to count so voters are not disenfranchised, yet has no issues asking Super Delegates to override the will of the majority of the voting public. She seems to have no issues destroying the credibility of her own party to meet her own ends.
I won’t even go into all the details about the “Vast Right Wing Conspiracy” being correct about her husband.
Obama is the man in 08. Unlike Hillary he has ethics direction and some consistency. He’ll be better for the country than either Hillary or McCain.
Not to diss the PENNSYLVANIANS, cause I am one (ALLENTOWN), but Hillary by all rights should win big. Pennsylvanians have a population that 20% is over the age of 65, 85% of the population is white (non-black), and only 20% are college educated. This falls right into the lap of the Clintons’. If she wins this state with a margin of 5-9 percent, it is time for the FAT LADY to do some serious singing. The money spigot should be turned off after a dissapointing performance, which will not help the $10M in debt she already owes to vendors.
Interesting we have not heard more about only Clinton on the ballots in PA. Until that hits the news media with substantiated facts I won’t believe it. I have read alot of the comments on here and some make some valid points. The issues that will decide the outcome of this election will be who do you trust the most. Who would you give your money to hoping to get it back. Reality not fiction and not partisan BS. Answer that truthfully. As a lower middle class worker (family) I am tired of the government taking my hard earned money that I work full time to make and give it away. It is costing most of the working class in the country too much money to live. Living from paycheck to paycheck. If you wish to continue living this way vote D. If you want more of your money to use for your family and not have the money grubbing government telling what to do and how to spend what little money they will leave you to survive on and barely at that. McCain is the future. Clinton and Obama are both cast of old time Democrat strategy that will force this country so far into recession it will take half a century to get it back out.