Polls Show Clinton Gaining Strength but Obama Picking Up Superdelegates
WASHINGTON — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama. Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama’s delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton’s superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively Obama’s association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator’s former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it’s treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton’s lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton’s substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama’s double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party’s chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America’s farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
“I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary,” he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
“This has got to come to an end,” Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because “a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain.”
“The ship is taking on water right now,” Andrew said at the news conference. “We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain.”
Asked for a response to Andrew’s decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, “We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing.”
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
I am so disgusted with the super delegates. They are following the DNC and the Democratic elite and going for BO even though the momentum is going in Hillary Clinton way. This leads me to believe that there is a back room deal going on. The fact that they are afraid of angering the black and new young votes sickens me if this is the reasoning for their choice along with them wanting to have the election process decided on the Democratic side before the convention. It concerns me that the threat of the “Black Uprise” is a concern. This on top of the Florida and Michigan vote slaps the American voting system right smack in the face. What would happen if Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina? Would they still think BO is their man because of the fear of the uprise?
Senator Clinton has always been the most qualified candidate and the only who can win in November. If she hadn’t received such unfair treatment by the press we wouldn’t be in this mess and she would have already wrapped up the nomination. Obama is qualified to run for president and he wasn’t even a community activist. He nothing more then a liar and a hypocrite.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDUTTzGgrJ8&feature=PlayList&p=A1A29B3CBAB7959C&index=9
If Obama get nomination my family and me will vote for McCain!!!!
GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama is a joke!!!!!!
She is the strongest candidate and people have seen this . She can beat McCain easily in November.
Comment by JM
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
I am a registered Democrat and I truly want a Democrat in the White House come November. But if Obama wins the nomination, McCain will be getting my vote, if I even vote at all.
JM, Please do not vote this coming election. Ignorant voting is how Bush got elected.
count the florida vote and add indiana and maybe north carolina clinton gets the popular vote cha ching she wins you darn obamabots
I’m sorry that the voters in MI and FL are being punished because the democrats in their state couldnt follow the rules. But, they broke the rules by having the primary early. When you break a rule, you have to accept the consequences, not whine about how it’s not fair
You got to love the media. Not once do they mention the fact that these super delegates may end up switching back to Hillary. I have one word to describe the Obama campaign…………TOAST!
The DNC (EVERYVOTE MUST COUNT) . Anyone remember Florida (chad & votes not counted) ? How can a party not count Florida & Michigan and in the same voice say superdelegates must stand pat on the primary voting ?????????? Democrats should be outraged
but just do not care !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LT,
What does Monica have to do with Hillary? Hillary will be president not Bill. If Obama gets the nomination the GOP will tare him apart with recordings and statements from Wright and Bill Ayers.