Polls Show Clinton Gaining Strength but Obama Picking Up Superdelegates
WASHINGTON — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama. Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama’s delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton’s superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively Obama’s association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator’s former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it’s treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton’s lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton’s substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama’s double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party’s chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America’s farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
“I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary,” he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
“This has got to come to an end,” Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because “a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain.”
“The ship is taking on water right now,” Andrew said at the news conference. “We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain.”
Asked for a response to Andrew’s decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, “We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing.”
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
If Clinton steals the nomination I will vote for McCain
You can kind of feel the momentum switching to Senator Clinton. She did a great job on O’Reilly and showed the her charismatic side as well as how tuned in she is the important issues.
Don’t forget about Michigan and Florida! The eventual nominee must have their support and must be counted.
Why isnt anyone in any major news source even asking about Paul v. Clinton?
Yeah, it’s a civil case. Yes, it’s against Bill. But Hillary has been called to testify, as has Chelsea, about Clinton promising to work for Paul if he donated money for Hillary’s campaign. Of course, after she was elected, he failed to keep his end of the bargain and is now being sued.
You know, if people want to say, how can Obama not have been influenced by years of listening to Wright, how can Hillary not have been influenced by years of the political tutelage of her husband… who was impeached… for perjury?
Its mighty funny that people are still talking about Rev Wright but refusing to talk about Peter Paul. Look up Paul vs Clinton people and you will find out that Hillary is not just a liar but is a crook. She refuses to talk about this issue. O’Reily! Why didn’t you ask Hillary about this? Do we need a crooked president? No. This case is coming up and a president do not have time to be in the court room while she is running the country. You all are going to find out that this issue is way more than what Rev Wright said. And since you like to talk about Rev Wright why don’t you pop up the pics he has with Bill Clinton. Also I have not herd the Clintons denousing the former paster who has been charged as a child molester.
I read an article last night in which Sidney Blumenthal, a strong Clinton supporter, is boasting about being the guy who digs up the dirt on Obama and passes it along to the Clinton camp, cable tv, newspapers and the web. He also said that he plans to continue to keep the names of Wright and Ayers in the news as long as he can.
I am glad that Obama doesn’t bring up Vince Foster, Paul, Whitegate, etc. He only goes negative when pushed in a corner. I wish he had’t had to go negative at all, but his advisors were concerned he would seem too soft if he didn’t defend himself.
The delegates must be listening to top economists who say that Obama’s economic plan is the best of the three, and that they understand the “gas tax holiday” is a political ploy, and that Obama is the person with a fresh approach. And the fact that he is young and identifies with this generation doesn’t hurt either.
May 2, 2008
NC Poll: Obama +16
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
Zogby’s latest (April 30-May1) is one of the few bright spots for Obama over the last 48 hours, showing him with a big lead over Clinton, though without any previous polling from Zogby we can’t tell which direction Obama may be going:
Obama 50 (no trend)
Clinton 34
Undecided 8
Overall, Obama’s lead in the RCP Average for North Carolina ticked back up to 8.4%.
In all this Democratic nonsense, the voice of reason appears to be an over-the-hill wrestler who once was Governor of Minnesota: “When you’re choosing between the lesser of two evils, you’re still voting for evil.” Thank you, Jesse Ventura.
Senator Obama leads in delegates and the popular vote due to FL and MI voters having been disenfranchised, and the primaries he won having voted prior to the Wright controversy and the exposure of Senator Obama’s association with other unsavory individuals and organizations.
Senator Obama has not won anything since these issues came to light and many who voted giving him the wins he has, would very much like to have their votes back. They will vote in November, just as the voters of FL and MI will.
Senator Obama cannot win the general election and a vote for Obama now is a vote for John McCain in November.
IF OBAMA WINS I VOTE FOR MCCAIN
Obama should not become the next president of the United States because of what he has said and done behind closed doors. Behind closed doors when he thinks it is safe to relax and let his hair down you get the bitterness comments or you find out that he and his wife are huddled together with Rev. Wright in secret but he goes out on to the big stage with another Rev.
He seems rather two faced and forked tongue to me.