Polls Show Clinton Gaining Strength but Obama Picking Up Superdelegates
WASHINGTON — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama. Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama’s delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton’s superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively Obama’s association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator’s former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it’s treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton’s lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton’s substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama’s double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party’s chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America’s farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
“I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary,” he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
“This has got to come to an end,” Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because “a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain.”
“The ship is taking on water right now,” Andrew said at the news conference. “We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain.”
Asked for a response to Andrew’s decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, “We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing.”
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
Do you suppose those Obama supporters were right when they said the superdelagates were not supporting the will of the people? What do they say now? Double standard? Oh yeah, it’s was just words.
Vote Democrat for big government, higher taxes, less freedom
I’ll probably vote McCain, but I was surprised at how well Hillary did in the O’Reilly interview. Not sure, but I don’t think Obama would be willing to be interviewed like that and, if he did, I don’t think he could do as well (I might be wrong). As a result, if a Democrat wins, then I think Hillary would be a better president (if she can control Bill and keep him out of the news).
If Andew doesn’t like the process he helped put in place, then he needs to help change it. If he truely wanted to end this, he’d be calling on all deligates (super and otherwise) to back Hillary so that Obama would get out of the race.
His flawed thinking is divisive. The people should decide who is the nominee, not some self-important media-attention-seeking individual that no knows or cares about.
Oh the right wing ers clapping for Hillary just to eat her alive later.
That is IF IF IF she makes it as the nomine..
Fox news endorses Hillary. What a shame.
IF YOU ARE DONT REMEMBER THE 90S YOU WOULD BE BETTER OFF NOT VOTING WE HAD GOOD TIMES. GAS WAS GOOD PEACE WAS GOOD OTHER COUNTRIES LOVED US. FOOD WAS GOOD , WE HAD A LOT OF THINKS GOING ON AND LOVING IT. NOW E HAVE AHELL OF A WAR FOOD THAT SOME CANT BUY, EVERYBODY HATES US WE HATE US. WE DONT TRUST OUR NEIGHBORS BUT YOU ARE WILLING TO PUT A STRANGER IN THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE LANDS. HOW STUPID CAN YOU BE. WE KNOW HILLARY WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THIS STRANGER OBAMA HAS IN STORE FOR US,
The Republicans and moderates are loving this! They fear Obama… They distrust Clinton. Now, it appears the McCain camp may be facing Hillary this fall - with one weapon left in their arsenal… MONICA!!!
I believe that we can’t serve two masters at the same time. Each time a religious leader utilizes the church for personal reasons and not teach the true words of God, the church is shaken.
I feel compassion for both Senator Obama and Rev Wright. I can’t judge them. My only wish is that something good happens in their lives after this experience.
I don’t belong to a political party, but I like to vote for whom I consider the best candidate from either of the parties.
This long primary has been an eye opener for me. So far, I think Hillary has been the strongest candidate. If she wins the primary, I’ll probably be voting for her.
Thanks.
I am a registered Democrat and I truly want a Democrat in the White House come November. But if Obama wins the nomination, McCain will be getting my vote, if I even vote at all.
The superdelegates seem to understand that Obama is going to end up winning. He has the lead and not much can really change that.
The are probably listening to top economists who say that Obama’s economic plan is the best of the three candidates, that he isn’t pandering to the people on the “gas tax holiday” a VERY short term fix with little to no help in the pocketbook, and that he is the young, fresh new face on the scene who is ready to work with this generation.