Polls Show Clinton Gaining Strength but Obama Picking Up Superdelegates
WASHINGTON — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama. Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama’s delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton’s superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively Obama’s association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator’s former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it’s treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton’s lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton’s substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama’s double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party’s chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America’s farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
“I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary,” he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
“This has got to come to an end,” Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because “a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain.”
“The ship is taking on water right now,” Andrew said at the news conference. “We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain.”
Asked for a response to Andrew’s decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, “We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing.”
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
While the superdelegates are for Rev Wright, the voters should decide this election. They are far better informed.
Some SUPERDELIGATES want to squash out hilary’s chances,i think that is a big mistake because OBAMA is not going to beat John mcCain because THE REVERAND WRIGHT issue is no going to GO AWAY.Ithink the Republican Machine will destroy him the same way they SWIFT BOATED JOHN KERRY.
If you vote for Hillary Clinton and she wins, you will then have two of the best brains in the White House figuring out how to get this country out of the messes it finds itself in. If this smooth-talking, rabble rouser Obama becomes President all the countries who despise America will laugh and shake their heads in wonder at our stupidity. I for one will not vote if flim-flam Obama gets the nomination. What in the world is wrong with our citizens?
I think Hillary can make the argument Obama’s negatives have risen and he cannot close. Clinton has won the big states needed in a general election. I think her recent win in PA was revealing of people who are not ready to cast a vote for a man they cannot connect with. Obama’s elitist attitude has recently been question and he is now being held to the same standard Clinton has through-out this campaign and HE doesn’t like it. Not everything can be erased with an eloquent speech.
It’s continues to amaze me that people are supporting Mr. Obama based upon his ability to “inspire” them. He “inspires” me too, but that is not a basis to give this man who we know almost NOTHING about the presidency of the United States. Are we insane? Are we so desperate for something new, “change” if you will, that we are willing to hand over the oval office to an inexperienced idealist. Our ecomony is wrecked, the respect for the United States is at it’s lowest level in our history. Mr. Obama may very well make a fine President someday, but let us not use the White House for training.
The Democrats are on the horns of a dilemma. Wright is only one of many problematic associations for Obama. They can’t repudiate him and they can’t win with him.
Sit back and enjoy the show, folks. Its only just begun.
I hope Clinton has removed her China story since it is only partically true. Her husband formally signed the sale agreement that put many people out of jobs here. One of the witnesses to that signing told a news reporter that what she is saying is only half true.
Both Obama and Clinton are lying to get power. The question is which one can fool the most people to achieve that goal. Of the three presidential candidates, only one is qualified for the position. McCain does not have to lie, he has nothing to hide.
“Fear” tactics; Hillary still a Republican.
Democrat hear this.
Hillary not the nominee, MaCain is getting my vote.